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Flattening the Covid-19 curve

Writer's picture: Dermot Keyes Dermot Keyes

Cocooning entered the national lexicon thanks to Leo Varadkar’s State of the Nation address last night in which he re-iterated the State’s response to the Covid-19 crisis.


Discussing the concept on ‘Morning Ireland’, Professor Sam McConkey, Associate Professor in International Health Tropical Medicine in the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RSCI) described it as “extra special help from other people around them to help to protect them from even getting the disease”.


Said Prof McConkey: “It’s a little bit akin to self-isolation except it’s not just the ‘self’ that’s doing it, it’s others around who are helping with that, as we actually have been doing in Ireland; many of us have been helping others who are in isolation, to get their groceries…and helping them with the practical realities of daily life.”


When asked if this will require those considered in the high risk bracket to remain in their homes, Prof McConkey replied: “Not necessarily in their homes but certainly socially distanced from others so going out into the garden, into the wind and the rain as we all do is probably fine and perhaps going for a walk more than two metres from others and not touching surfaces is fine. So it’s not necessarily (about being exclusively) at home, it’s more the social distancing than the geographic separation in the home.”


During his address last night, the Taoiseach stated: “At a certain point… we will advise the elderly and people who have a long-term illness to stay at home for several weeks. We are putting in place the systems to ensure that if you are one of them, you will have food, supplies and are checked on.


We call this ‘cocooning’ and it will save many lives… particularly the most vulnerable… the most precious in our society.”


Mr Varadkar continued: “It’s going to be very difficult to stay apart from our loved ones. Most grandparents just want to give their grandkids a hug and a kiss – but as hard as this is… we need to keep our physical distance to stop the virus. Technology can help – check in with your loved ones on Skype or Facetime and promise them you’ll see them again soon.”



When asked about how soon we could expect to see such ‘cocooning’ initiated, Prof McConkey (pictured) told ‘Morning Ireland’: “Well, I can’t say that – that’s up to the Government – I think our next response depends on whether the current measures that have started in the last few days really have a significant impact on viral transmission – and I’m hoping of course that they will. If it’s the case after perhaps one, two, three weeks that we’re still seeing a rise in cases that continues unabated, then additional measures would be necessary - for example, smaller gatherings. At present we’re allowed to have up to 500 people outside and 100 people inside – those limits as you know in other countries are down to 10 – it may involve some restrictions on people coming in from other countries. For example, a 14-day self-quarantine has already been suggested so there are additional measures that could be implemented, including the cocooning. That decision is really up to the National Government and Dr Holohan, the advisor to the Government, to look at.”


Prof McConkey commented: “What I’d like to see is (Covid-19) levelling off and if we get very high levels of buy-in from the population, which is what I’m seeing – a lot of people have realised that there’s something very unique going on. In that way, cancelling Saint Patrick’s Day and closing the pubs has made this a very visible and very obvious thing in that there’s something very visible and very obvious, dramatic and unprecedented happening at this point. Everyone has got that message and people do seem to be going along with the social distancing – in China where they’d about 98 per cent adherence to those measures, they were able to bring the epidemic down within two to three weeks.”


That this crisis is going to get worse before matters manifestly improve is undoubted according to Prof McConkey.

“It takes a couple of weeks for the social distancing to have its impact and to take (the coronavirus) numbers down and hopefully to level off and flatten the curve, so having the same number of cases tomorrow as today, that would be a great place to be if we could stop it growing and then the next challenge is to see it decrease.”


This is the defining numbers game of our lifetime. Let’s hope that the Covid-19 curve flattens sooner rather than later.

 
 
 

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